Iraq:
Counting Down to War?
by
Peter Taaffe (Dec/02)
NOVEMBER'S
UN vote showed the preparedness of the US to use its military, economic
and political clout to get its way in order to unseat Saddam. But,
argues Peter Taaffe, nothing is more unpredictable than war or the
path to war.
Resolution
1441 passed by the United Nations (UN) security council on 8 November
by 15 votes to nil is similar to the terms of surrender dictated by
the victors to the defeated in battle. The resolution, and the accompanying
letter from the chief weapons inspector Hans Blix, are couched in
the insensitive, brutal language of an imperialist bully, calculated
to humiliate not just the dictatorial regime of Saddam Hussein but
also to aggravate the already inflamed national feelings of the Iraqi
and Arab people as a whole.
The
UN resolution virtually stipulates terms for a partial occupation
of Iraq. The ultimate purpose of this is to grab Iraqs considerable
oil resources, under the guise of combating weapons of mass destruction.
Moreover, this is to be initially conducted under the flag of the
UN, which is now correctly seen as a tool of US imperialism. It is
similar in its intent to the Rambouillet accords, which the US and
Britain sought to impose on the former Yugoslavia in 1999. These proposals
demanded the right for NATO armed detachments to be allowed to pass
freely through Yugoslavia, unhindered by the Yugoslav government.
This was rejected by Milosevic, which led to war and subsequently
to his current indictment for war crimes at The Hague.
However,
this resolution is even harsher than Rambouillet in what it demands
of Iraq and is designed to provide the conditions in which either
war takes place and Saddam is removed, or the same task is accomplished
by a soft invasion, which leads to an uprising in Iraq
or a palace coup. It dictates that a UN special commission (UNMOVIC)
and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the weapons
inspectors from these bodies should have "unimpeded, unconditional
and unrestricted access to any and all, including underground, areas,
facilities, buildings, equipment, records". It "further
decides" the weapons inspectors shall have the "discretion"
(to) conduct interviews in and outside of Iraq, and "may facilitate
the travel of those interviewed and family members outside of Iraq
without the presence of observers from the Iraqi government".
All inspection sites, including the presidential sites
should be accessible to the inspectors and "the security of UNMOVIC
and IAEA facilities shall be ensured by sufficient United Nations
security guards".
In
addition to this, "exclusion zones, including surrounding areas
and transit corridors", can be established by the weapons inspectors
and "Iraq will suspend ground and aerial movements so that nothing
is changed in or taken out of a site being inspected". The UN
agencies shall also have "free and unrestricted use of landing
and fixed and rotary-winged aircraft, including manned and unmanned
reconnaissance vehicles". They also have the right to import
equipment and materials and to "seize and export any equipment,
materials, or documents taken during inspections, without search of
UNMOVIC or IAEA personnel of official or personal baggage".
Adding
insult to injury, Iraq is also expected to pay for the occupation:
"The National Monitoring Directorate (NMD)
the Iraqi counterpart
for the inspectors" will provide free of cost, a whole array
of facilities such as escorts, a telephone hotline, the
cost of transportation, etc. In addition: "Iraq will provide
without cost adequate office buildings, staff accommodation, and appropriate
escort personnel
aircraft fuel will be provided by Iraq, as
before, free of charge".
Yet,
even before the UN weapons inspectors begin their work "false
statements or omissions" allegedly submitted by Iraq could be
deemed to be "in material breach of Iraqs obligations".
This could then be reported to the UN Security Council, and in turn
this could be the trigger for war. The Iraqi regime is supposed to
give a complete declaration of all aspects of its weapons programme
within 30 days of the passing of the UN resolution, by 8 December.
However, the letter from the Iraqi government to the UN declaring
that it did not have weapons of mass destruction has already been
interpreted by US spokespersons as giving the green light for the
Bush regime to go back to the UN on 8 December, to declare that Iraq
is already in material breach and demand that the UN conduct
a full-scale invasion, or the US itself will undertake the task together
with its allies, notably Britain.
In
reality, it is unlikely that the Bush regime will be able to proceed
in this fashion. The UN resolution "required eight weeks of excruciating
negotiations", as the International Herald Tribune described
it, before France, Russia, China and the Arab states finally came
on board. Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary-General, gently chastised the
hawks in the US administration for their eagerness to
go to war: "The US appeared to have a lower threshold for military
action than the Security Council members". He "cautioned
against turning the inspections into a hunt for excuses to go to war".
He has accordingly earned the ire of the US right, as has Hans Blix,
chief weapons inspector, who stated on his first day in Baghdad that
war is not inevitable.
The
very fact that Bush was compelled to go to the UN was a defeat for
the hawks in the US administration who were urging him
to launch a unilateral pre-emptive strike against Iraq. The US hawks
are typified by Richard Perle, a key adviser to Bush. He has long
advocated a pre-emptive strike against Saddam and an end to the US
ban on assassination of dictators. He argues: "I absolutely believe
in assassinations. I have always thought an absolute prohibition was
unnecessarily inflexible" (The Guardian, 13 November). Asked
if Saddam should be assassinated he replied: "Yes, Saddam has
killed tens of thousands of people". US imperialism killed at
least 5,000 in Afghanistan; Bush will be responsible for at least
ten times this number of deaths if a war is unleashed in Iraq. Six
thousand Iraqi children die each month through the imposition of US
sanctions, yet these are facts that are "immaterial" to
Perle and the group of hawks, such as Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz
and others who support him.
Capturing
the UN
The
fact that the Bush regime was compelled to go through the UN was a
defeat for them and a victory for the wing of the US administration
represented by Colin Powell. He is neither liberal nor
anti-war but understands the catastrophic consequences
which would result from a pre-emptive strike. The UN resolution was
also the result of the pressure exerted by France, Russia and others
in the UN Security Council who are terrified at the repercussions
of an invasion of Iraq. There have been worldwide protests of an unprecedented
character in opposition to Bushs war plans, even before a war
has started; 400,000 marched in London, one million in Florence in
Italy, 200,000 in Washington DC. Even in a period of phoney
war, these rival the biggest demonstrations and protests of
the Vietnam War.
Although
Bush and the Republican Party have claimed that the US mid-term election
results are a mandate for war, this is not true. An analysis
of these elections (see p15) show that they were not the landslide
claimed by Bush, nor are they a measure of the real mood of the US
population on the issue of war. As Michael Moore, the highly successful
US satirist, has pointed out, "the polls show the majority of
Americans oppose bombing Iraq without the support of Britain and the
allies
there is a strong feeling against going to war".
(The Daily Mirror, 16 November) Moreover, in Britain a mere 13% will
back the Blair government if a unilateral war is declared
by the US, backed by Britain. An indication of the heightened anti-war
movement, particularly in Europe, is that it has been responsible,
at least partially, in deciding the outcome of one general election,
in Germany.
Nevertheless,
the US achieved a 15-0 victory for the resolution, something which
they did not even achieve in 1991 before the Gulf War, when Cuba and
Yemen voted against while China abstained, in the vote for force to
be used to evict Iraq from Kuwait. Subsequently Yemen suffered material
punishment as the US spitefully cut off a $70 million aid package
to Yemen and its ally, the reactionary Saudi Arabian regime, evicted
thousands of Yemeni workers from its territory. This time around,
there was the same mixture of arm twisting and threats. Tiny Mauritius,
for instance, recalled its ambassador to the UN because he had "been
insufficiently slavish in supporting Washington on the Security Council.
Dollars were at stake" (The Independent, 9 November).
Even
the Arab League, shamefully and blatantly at variance with the street
throughout the region, voted for the resolution in order to
prevent war. Syria, which looked as though it would be the single
member of the Security Council to abstain or vote No,
was also dragooned into going along with the resolution at the last
minute, on the same grounds that this was the only way
to prevent war. It desperately wants to avoid war against Iraq, partly
because its trade with Baghdad under the oil for aid programme
is worth $1bn to its shaky economy. It is also prompted by the fear
that if a pro-American regime is installed in Baghdad, Syria and Iran
will be next in line for regime change. Syria also fears
that Israel under the Sharon government could use the cover of a war
against Iraq as a pretext for attacking Syria.
The
UN vote was not a vote for a just cause but a product
of the post-11 September mood, the preparedness of the US to use its
military, economic and political clout to get its way. This is summed
up by The Independents correspondent, Rupert Cornwell:
"Those who oppose America do so at their peril
(It) brought
to mind the maxim of Al Capone, a figure who Mr Bushs foes abroad
might liken to him: You can go a long way with a smile, you
can go a lot further with a smile and a gun. Except
while the
gun was sticking out of the holster, there was no smile."
Gangster metaphors for the US are much in vogue. One correspondent
to the International Herald Tribune stated that the resolution on
Iraq "is a bit like saying this to someone: Either you
provide us with the proof that you are a crook for which you
will be punished of course or you dont, in which case
you will be severely punished for not co-operating."
But
in the process, the UN has received a body blow to its image as the
representative of the world community, which will be compounded
in the event of war. The naïve perception of reformists, including
those on the left and even significant sections of workers and youth
who look towards a body which can represent humankind as a whole rather
than the narrow interests of the US and other powers, has been shattered.
On the streets of Florence in the one million anti-capitalist, anti-war
demonstration, some of the anger of the masses was directed as much
at the UN as at the US. The US is seen to have captured
the UN and bent it to its purposes on Iraq.
One
flat tyre from war?
Does
the UN resolution therefore enhance the prospect of war, along with
enhanced weapons inspectors? Certainly, war is now possible
and the anti-war movement will no doubt proceed on the basis that
Bush and Blair are determined to carry through regime change through
a military invasion of Iraq. But there are some roadblocks
on the road map to war. Even Bush during the mid-term
elections and subsequently softened his language and declared that
regime change would not be inevitable if Saddam complied
with the UN resolution. This has not pleased the hawks
who are itching for a war against Iraq as the most effective way for
the US oil monopolies to grab the lions share of Iraqs
oil and at the same time demonstrate the preparedness of the US to
exercise its military might against anyone prepared to stand up to
it. But Powell and, it now seems Bush, understand that the full implementation
of the UN resolution could possibly achieve the same effect, at less
expense, as an invasion, namely such a weakening of Saddams
regime that it will be toppled either by an uprising or by a coup
from within.
On
the other hand, the weapons inspectors regime has the potential
for all kinds of incidents, which could trigger the process leading
to war. Under the previous inspectors regime all kinds of bizarre
incidents took place. As some of the inspectors have subsequently
admitted, they were intelligence gatherers for the US,
in effect agents for the CIA. Hans Blix, chief weapons inspector,
has this time given assurances that they will not be spies
for the US but independent. That remains to be seen.
Under
the previous regime there were clashes, some of them serious, as when
Iraqi troops removed materials from a site and were pursued by weapons
inspectors, which led to the Iraqi troops firing over their heads.
If it was left to the hawks like Rumsfeld and Perle it
would take a much less serious incident than that to trigger a return
to the UN and for the process of war to be unleashed. Recently, Perle
argued that one deflated tyre on a UN vehicle would not be the trigger
for war; but four deflated tyres could be construed as a conspiracy
and the dogs of war would be unleashed! However, given the suspicions
of the US and now the UN worldwide, it would take more serious breaches
for war to be triggered. The international consciousness of, and hostility
to, the motives of the US means that it will not be easy to contrive
an incident, like the infamous Gulf of Tonkin incident
at the time of the Vietnam War, to justify an all-out war.
The
final form of the UN resolution is a concession to the two stage
argument the French pursued from the outset. This means that any material
breach must be reported to the UN and only then would a decision
be taken, either by the UN or subsequently by the US unilaterally.
Moreover, as we have seen, the UN resolution can mean all things
to all men with the US voting for it as a stage towards possibly
triggering war and others, such as France, etc, as well as the Arab
states, believing that Iraqi compliance will rule out
the prospect of war. In other words, the alliance that has been constructed
through the UN could fracture at the moment a decision is arrived
at to prepare for or avoid war.
At
the same time, there is a limited time line in which an
effective military strike could be organised against Iraq. After the
spring of next year the heat in the Iraqi desert combined with the
necessary special equipment that must be worn by US coalition combat
troops for protection against chemical and biological attacks, makes
it prohibitive to go to war then. Therefore, if a war is to take place
it must be before the end of March 2003 (or be delayed until much
later in the year). Yet it is not at all certain that the weapons
inspectors will have completed their examination for the process of
war to begin.
Another
complicating factor in the Bush administrations war plans include
the increasing awareness, not least amongst the US population, that
Iraq is not the "present and immediate danger" to them pictured
by Bush. Bin Laden, still alive it seems and uncaptured, is such a
threat. The tape released by him in November praising previous terrorist
incidents, in Karachi against the French, in Tunisia against Germans,
in Bali primarily aimed at Australians, and in Moscow, and promising
similar retribution against Britain and Italy in particular, is itself
testimony to the failure of the Bush regimes war against
terror. There is now a widespread perception that Iraq has been
singled out not because of its part in the axis of evil
but because of the pressure of the voracious oil, gas and energy capitalists
which underpin the Bush regime, who are looking to carve out for themselves
the lions share of the post-Saddam oil industry. North Korea
is more of a threat given its admission of a capability to produce
nuclear weapons, and yet no war is promised against the heirs of Kim
Il-sung.
Unknown
equations of battle
Despite
the speculation about Russia and the Caspian Sea supplanting Saudi
Arabia as the petrol pump for the US economy, the Saudis are still
the major oil supplier for the US and world capitalism. Fully 25%
of the worlds known oil reserves are possessed by Saudi Arabia
compared to 11% for Iraq and 5% in Russia (whose oil is relatively
expensive because of the costs of extraction).
The
Persian Gulf, therefore, remains of vital strategic interest for US
imperialism. It is, as this conflict over Iraq shows, prepared to
go to war to defend this vital interest. It is this which motivates
the bloodthirsty and pro-war hawks of Rumsfeld and co.
They believe that a quick victory through blitzkrieg methods
involving no more than 50,000 troops could topple the Saddam regime.
However, the US joint chiefs of staff, encouraged by Colin Powell,
have won support from Bush for the traditional military doctrine of
the US of overwhelming military force, involving the deployment
of at least 200,000 and possibly a quarter of a million troops, to
overthrow Saddam if required.
Saddam,
on the other hand, by ultimately accepting the UN resolution, has
opted for a humiliating retreat in the face of US power. He realises
that in a full-frontal attack the US, which has enhanced its military
prowess since the Gulf war while Iraqs military force has been
weakened, will ultimately prevail in a head-on trial of strength.
Therefore, somewhat like Muhammed Ali in his boxing match against
George Foreman the rumble in the jungle in Zaire
in 1975 Saddam is attempting to deploy rope a dope
tactics. This involves lying on the ropes for a number
of rounds, taking all the punches and delivering the knockout
blow when the opponent tires. The problem with this contest
is that it is like pitting a child with a peashooter against the world
heavyweight champion. It is no contest.
Nevertheless,
it is not at all certain that in a war the weaker power (Iraq) cannot
inflict serious blows on imperialism which could rebound against the
Bush regime and US imperialism. The contest between Iraq and the US
will not be a cakewalk, as claimed by some of the more
bellicose hawks. Rumsfeld has speculated that a war would be over
in a matter of weeks, at most five months. It is possible
that, such is the suffering of the Iraqi people and the hatred of
the Saddam regime, that uprisings of the Shias in the south and the
Kurds in the north would coalesce with the resignation and unwillingness
to fight of the Sunnis and other tribes in the central part of the
country. In this situation the Iraqi regime could collapse.
But
this scenario is not at all certain, given the widespread perception
of the Iraqi people that it is not just Saddam that the US is after
but also the natural resources of the country to exploit. Moreover,
Iraq has been the cradle of Arab nationalism, an attack upon which
will have enormous repercussions throughout the Arab world and the
Middle East in general. It is therefore not excluded that the Iraqi
army or sections of it around the Republican Guard will fight and
particularly in any conflict in and around Baghdad. The Iraqi military
is, as the Washington Post argues, "but a shadow of what it was
at the start of the Gulf war". It probably has less than half
of the million plus troops it had then. The 300,000 strong largely
conscript army may crack quickly, particularly under massive aerial
bombardment. But there are still 80,000 troops in the Republican Guard
and Special Republican Guard, who are a praetorian guard for Saddam
and pledged to fight to the death to repel the US. They come largely
from Saddams own tribe. One US four-star general commented to
the Washington Post: "I dont think the folks Im dealing
with are thinking this is going to be a cakewalk; it never is. Anybody
with a gun in his hand who is defending his town or his tribe can
be a pretty tough opponent especially when he is in his own backyard".
Former
UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter contrasts the Saddam regime to Milosevics
Yugoslavia. He wrote: "Milosevics cronies were all about
wealth. With Iraqs regime its all about the tribe, the
family. Its about influence and pride". Moreover, Tariq
Aziz, Iraqs deputy prime minister, has pointedly warned that
not just Iraq but US forces and its friends in the region
will pay a price in a war. Therefore the nightmare scenario
of house-to-house battles with mounting casualties of US troops as
well as carnage for the population of Baghdad is possible. If there
is enormous unease in the US now, with the return of hundreds, or
thousands of US body bags an explosion of rage will ensue. The ghosts
of Vietnam have not been expunged from the consciousness of the US
population and could come back to haunt Bush in the event of a less
than complete and relatively unbloody conclusion to a war.
Opening
the gates of hell
The
reverberations of an attack on Iraq, moreover, will be immediate and
massive in the Middle East. Indeed, such a war will play right into
the hands of bin Laden and the right-wing political Islamists. Former
US security adviser Sandy Berger has correctly pointed out that bin
Ladens real twin towers were not in New York but
the "regimes of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia". A direct consequence
of the attack on Afghanistan has been the burgeoning of the Islamists
in Pakistan who triumphantly came second even in the rigged elections
of President Musharraf in October.
The
Committee for a Workers International (CWI) warned that one
of the consequences of the Afghan War could be the Algerianisation
of Pakistan. This could now come to fruition if the Islamists are
prevented from entering the government. Their counterparts in Algeria
won the elections in 1992 but they were subsequently cancelled
by the Algerian army. This in turn has led to the bloody terrorist
and counter-terrorist war, with 100,000 victims since then. This could
be the grizzly legacy left to the Pakistani people from Bush and Blairs
war on terror in Afghanistan.
But
it would be as nothing compared to consequences in the Arab world
as a whole in the event of an all-out war against Iraq. The chairman
of the Arab League warned some months ago that it would open the gates
of hell. This was followed in November by Prince al-Hassan bin
Talal of Jordan warning that the USs strategy could "lead
to a domino effect of regime change in the region". He meant
by this above all Jordan. This regime is sitting on a social volcano.
The city of Maan, for instance, has been convulsed recently by mass
conflict, with the population defending Islamists from
the troops of the Hashemite monarchy. The population of Jordan, half
of whom are Palestinian, already outraged by the Palestinian-Israeli
conflict, will unleash its fury against the regime if it backs the
US, never mind if it gives facilities, in any attack on Iraq. The
same goes for Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Then US imperialism could face
the definitive nightmare scenario, of an uprising to overthrow the
Saudi monarchy and its replacement by a new regime in which state
terror could be unleashed against the US and all symbols of
US imperialism.
Not
the least effect could be the dire economic consequences which have
now been pointed to by William Nordhaus of Yale University. He has
explained that even a clean war is likely to incur costs
for which no amount of increased Iraqi oil production could compensate.
George Perry, an analyst with the Brookings Institute, has drawn up
three scenarios, the middle one of which suggests "the tripling
of oil prices to $75 a barrel. That would almost certainly push the
world into recession" (The Independent, 16 November).
This
war, moreover, would not be financed by the allies of
US imperialism as in 1991. Then, Japan, Germany and Saudi Arabia underwrote
the costs of the war, leaving Washington with just over $2bn to pay.
The baseline cost of an initial military campaign is put
by Nordhaus at $50bn. A post-war military occupation of Iraq would
mean additional expenditure "anywhere from $75bn to $500bn"
(£47bn to £316bn). Of course, US imperialism promised
a massive injection of cash into Afghanistan. In the event, a mere
$10 million for economic redevelopment has been received
by Afghanistan compared to $13bn spent on the bombings and Special
Forces operations. The dream of a democratic, peaceful and prosperous
post-Saddam Iraq is precisely that, a dream, a mirage.
The
issues of war and peace are finely balanced now. A war still seems
likely, but it is not at all certain for the reasons described. If,
against the odds, war is postponed or delayed by Saddam and the pressure
of world public opinion, this could represent a severe setback for
the Bush regime unless Bush achieves his objective of regime
change, the overthrow of Saddam, without a war. If, on the other
hand, they launch an invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam, or the other
variant, manage to topple him without a war but by provoking an uprising
or coup on the backs of the work of the weapons inspectors, this in
no way guarantees a victory without costs. The world, and particularly
the Middle East, as well as Asia and the Muslim world as a whole,
will be in turmoil. The scene will be set for further terrorist outrages
which in turn could feed the war machine of the Bush regime for use
in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Moreover,
the dire underlying economic crisis will come to the fore even in
the event that George Bush junior carries through what his father
started in 1991 and topples Saddam. Bush senior won the war but lost
the presidential elections which followed because of the economic
crisis of the early 1990s. The US economic position is far more dire
today, in some ways potentially one of the worst economic positions
in its history. It is this fact, and particularly the suffering of
the US working class and sections of the middle class that results
from this, which will undermine the Bush regime.
The
worldwide anti-war movement must seek to stay the hand of Bush and
Blair and those driving towards war. Ultimately, however, only by
changing society, carrying through the socialist reorganisation of
the world, would it be possible to eliminate the causes of war, capitalism
itself.