In the general election most commentators and most voters expect little change. Until relatively recently it was taken as read that Tony Blair and New Labour would romp home. The actual result could be much closer however.

A Tory victory cannot be entirely ruled out though it is unlikely. Much more likely is a sharply reduced Labour majority or even a hung parliament.

The reason for this is not that voters are flocking to the Tories but rather that many working class and young people are disenchanted with New Labour. They are disillusioned because New Labour hasn't delivered any improvements in their lives and because of the war in Iraq. As a consequence large numbers of ex-Labour voters will simply stay at home on polling day.

Despite the pent up anger against New Labour, no serious mass left alternative has emerged in England and Wales since 1997. The rail union, the RMT, has been expelled from New Labour and the firefighters' union, the FBU, has broken from the party but the creation of a new party based on the unions is yet to be achieved.

The Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) has partially filled the gap to the left of New Labour in Scotland. It is standing in all Scottish constituencies though unfortunately the SSP is in serious danger of reducing its appeal through its embrace of nationalist ideas and the weakening of its socialist programme.

In England and Wales the options are more limited. The Socialist Party, linked to the Socialist Party in Northern Ireland, is standing in 15 constituencies. It has formed an alliance with a number of other left wing groups that are standing in another 15 areas.

The Respect coalition, formed around expelled Labour MP George Galloway, is standing in 28 seats. It is not a socialist formation however and it is attempting to appeal to Muslims as Muslims. As such it is not going to become a new mass left workers party nor is it a step in that direction.

In Northern Ireland the general election will be yet another sectarian headcount. In every constituency except one there will be no serious candidate who reaches across the sectarian divide and unites working people on a class basis.

Sinn Fein will pull further ahead of the SDLP despite the fall out from the murder of Robert McCartney. At the very least they will almost certainly pick up Newry/South Armagh where Seamus Mallon is standing down.

The loss of seats would be a severe blow to the SDLP from which the party would be unlikely to recover.

Similarly the DUP will press the UUP hard. No UUP seat is entirely safe including David Trimble's. Again the loss of several seats would spell disaster for the UUP and would bring Trimble's leadership to an end. The realignment of unionism around the DUP would continue.

The continuing growth in support of the DUP and Sinn Fein reflects and reinforces the reality of division on the ground. It is does not indicate that these two parties have moved to the centre ground and it does not make the already slim chance of agreement in renewed negotiations any easier.

The one seat where there is serious alternative is West Tyrone where hospital campaigner Kieran Deeny is standing. He topped the poll in the area in the last Assembly elections and won a seat. He should do well again this time out and, whilst it is not the most likely prospect, he could just win a parliamentary seat. A decent result will stand out as the usual grey parade of MP's from sectarian parties return to Westminster.

The Socialist Party is running four candidates in the local elections and will use the election to build support for the idea of a new party to represent working class people.

Whoever is returned to Downing Street, and whichever sectarian parties win out in the North, the problems facing working people will remain. Over the next few years struggles will grow around class issues, especially the imposition of water charges. It is through such struggles that the call for a non-sectarian, socialist party in Northern Ireland will take on real flesh.