The IRA statement on its future role that has been in the pipeline for some time is still eagerly awaited by the two governments and the main political parties as we go to press.

The governments hope that a clear statement that the IRA is to wind itself up, followed by a substantial act of decommissioning, will unlock the current political impasse and entice the DUP into talks about reconstituting the collapsed Assembly.

This is not likely to happen, at least in the short term. For a start, the IRA statement is likely to fall short of the DUP's call for total disbandment. The word "disbandment", which was on everyone's lips at the start of the year has noticeably disappeared from the more recent pronouncements of the two governments.

Rather the talk is of the IRA entering a new "peaceful" mode. This is a long way short of the "sackclothes and ashes" demanded by the DUP and is unlikely to immediately jumpstart the political process.

In any case the collapse of the Assembly is not down to the existence of the IRA. Fundamentally, it is due to the sectarian polarisation within society which has deepened even since the Assembly fell and was starkly reflected in the recent election results.

This division makes it increasingly difficult for the sectarian politicians to come up with a deal that would hold for any length of time. Even if talks do take place and some form of local administration is re-established, renewed conflict over policing, parades or some other question could pull it apart at any time.

The IRA statement, when it comes, will reflect the distance the Adams leadership has been able to take the republican movement at the moment. For the current leadership the "war" in the sense of the conflict with the British state is over and has been over for more than a decade. They have little hesitation about destroying arms that they have no intention of ever again putting to use, provided that the gesture is not so humiliating that it would threaten a split.

An IRA statement might be followed by a similar statement from at least some of the loyalist groups. This would not mean a final end to these organisations or to the Troubles.

The paramilitaries will continue to exist in some form. They will attempt to maintain their control of working class areas. The various rackets used to raise funds will also continue in some form. It would take a united movement of the working class to finally break their hold on these areas.

The Troubles are continuing in the form of a long drawn out sectarian "war" over territory. If they were to escalate, it would be in the form of widespread sectarian confrontation.

The Socialist Party stands for the complete disbandment of all paramilitary organisations - loyalist and republican.

With people on both sides facing attack there is an issue of defence of working class areas that cannot be ignored. This should not be in the hands of paramilitaries but of local people, through local democratic structures where all the issues involved could be thrashed out.

Similarly what remains of a peace process cannot be left in the hands of sectarian politicians who, at the end of the day, have a vested interest in keeping working class people divided into sectarian camps.

A new political voice is needed to represent the united interests of working class people. Then we could have a real peace process, based on uniting working class communities, not on keeping them divided. This will remain the key to the future whatever the IRA statement says.

On July 12th a major riot broke out as an Orange Order march passed the Ardoyne shops in Belfast. On the same day there was a stand off between residents and Orangemen in Dunloy in North Antrim and minor rioting broke out in Derry despite a local agreement to allow a parade on the city side.

There has not been widespread conflict over the issue of parades for several summers but the events of July 12th illustrate that the problem has not gone away. For this reason it is important that an alternative to the confrontational attitudes of some on both sides is posed.

Given the ever-changing sectarian geography of Northern Ireland, there are new controversial marches every year. New battle lines form as old conflict areas settle down to a weary stalemate. The Cushendall Road in Ballymena, for example, has become a contentious area as it becomes more and more Catholic. Catholic residents in the area certainly have the right not to be trampled over but marking out areas in every town and village as "belonging" to one side or the other will not solve the problem.

The controversy over marches is one aspect of a wider conflict over territory. In this conflict every square foot of Northern Ireland, every village, town, and road is claimed by one side or the other.

A solution to the parades issue based purely on sectarian geography is no solution. It is a sterile approach which ultimately worsens the situation, hardening attitudes on both sides.

The Orange Order is a reactionary sectarian organisation. Despite this it does have a right to march. To deny this right merely alienates the wider Protestant community and drives them behind the various bigots who want to whip up this issue. Local residents also have a right to object and to protest. The parades issue is therefore a problem of conflicting rights.

And whilst there are rights on both sides there is also the overarching right of the working class as a whole not to be dragged into a sectarian conflict over this issue. These rights must be balanced and this can only be done through discussion, compromise and agreement. Agreements should then be stewarded by parade organisers and residents, not the PSNI whose heavy handed methods only make things much worse.

Representatives of marchers must engage in face to face talks with local residents. For talks to be meaningful however they must be about something. When Gerard Rice of the Lower Ormeau Concerned Residents stated some years ago that loyalists must "find some way of expressing their culture other than parades" it is clear that he sees no future for parades.

Similarly ex-SDLP councilor Brian Feeney, recently spat out what others are thinking. Commenting on Ardoyne (Irish News, 22 June 2005) he argued: "Therefore it's too much to hope that anyone can penetrate the tiny particle of brain their current leadership possesses to explain that the sectarian geography of Belfast has changed, that feeder parades along roads now Catholic are not on any more." For Brian Feeney the simple answer to controversial parades is no parades!

The right to march is not absolute. The Orange Order does not have the right to march through, for example, the middle of Catholic housing estates. Arterial routes (main roads) and town and village centres are however another matter.

During the Troubles Republican marches were routinely banned from the city centre of Belfast. Republicans represented a minority of the population of Belfast but this did not mean that they had no right to march to the City Hall.

Protestants are a minority in many parts of Northern Ireland. Does this mean that they have no right to march in those areas? Catholics in Ballymena are in a clear minority. Does this mean they have no rights? Sinn Fein have announced a march in Ballymena in August. Should this be banned because a majority in the city object?

The city centre of Belfast, and other town centres, should be viewed as neutral territory, open to all. Similarly main arterial routes should also be open.

Where an arterial route goes past an area where people object to the parade the only answer is agreement through dialogue.

This is the way that the controversy over the parades which pass the Ardoyne shops - and similar controversies - should be dealt with. Just to say that there should no parade and that the Orangemen should take buses is no more an answer than for the Orange leaders to insist they will walk where they like without talking to residents.

Ultimately sectarian organizations such as the Orange Order are part of the problem in Northern Ireland. The real challenge to the Orange Order - and to sectarian forces on the other side - will come from within their own communities as working class people search for an anti-sectarian, class-based and socialist alternative to the politics of the past.