The British and Irish governments are once again attempting to push the main political parties towards agreement and towards forming a governing Executive.
In an historic decision, Sinn Fein’s Ard Chomhairle has voted to back the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI). The decision now has to be endorsed by a special Ard Fheis.
If the Ard Fheis is held by the end of January, and votes to support the PSNI, an election will probably follow on 7 March. Then, if the DUP accepts that Sinn Fein is “genuine” in its support for policing, the assembly will meet on 26 March and the DUP and Sinn Fein will be the dominant parties in a newly elected Executive. If a deal is done, there is an expectation that policing and justice powers will be transferred to Stormont control by May 2008.
The process is in serious trouble however as the DUP has not responded “positively” in the eyes of Sinn Fein and the date of the Ard Fheis is now in doubt. If it is not held by the end of January, then the timetable will fall apart.
If this does happen, it is still possible that there will be a Sinn Fein-DUP Executive at some future point. This would not be a “solution” in any sense. The two parties will not be able to work together even on day to day issues and the arrangement will be prone to fracture at every crisis.
Both the DUP and Sinn Fein are facing significant internal problems. The Sinn Fein leadership would get a majority on policing at an Ard Fheis, but are losing members, including prominent figures. Republican dissidents are threatening to stand against Sinn Fein in a number of largely rural areas. At this stage the dissidents are unlikely to attract a significant vote, but their stand is giving the Sinn Fein leadership considerable concern.
Similarly, the mainstream DUP leadership will probably be able to sell power-sharing with Sinn Fein to the party ranks but not without difficulty. Many prominent DUP figures are opposed to power sharing at this time, some maybe forever. In these circumstances, both party leaderships are finding it difficult to make the final moves necessary to allow the Executive to get up and running.
Whenever an election is held, it will be dominated by sectarian issues. The vast majority of votes will be cast for parties that base themselves on sectarian division and Sinn Fein and the DUP will certainly emerge as the clear winners in each community.
This is not the full picture however, as increasing numbers of working class and young people are turned off by the sectarian political parties. This is reflected in the fact that turnout has fallen over the last number of elections. At this point however, the majority of working class people see no credible political alternative to the sectarian parties.
One issue in particular, the introduction of water charges, is acting like a lightning conductor for all the anger and frustration of working class people. Water charges are being introduced by direct rule ministers, but all the main parties were prepared to bring in the charges when they last held power and will do so again if an Executive is reformed.
The Socialist Party intends to stand in the Assembly election to provide an alternative for voters in at least some areas and to argue the case for the building of a mass, anti-sectarian political alternative. A united campaign of the Catholic and Protestant working class on the issue of water charges will show the benefit of unity over division and will point the way forward for those workers and youth who are fed up with the sectarian nightmare of Northern Ireland.
