Reeling from the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan has been thrown into turmoil. Presidential elections due to be held in early January have been postponed and instability grips the country. Khalid Bhatti, secretary of the Socialist Movement Pakistan (CWI Pakistan) sister party of the Socialist Party, reports from Lahore, Pakistan on the crisis and outlines what the future holds for the country and the region.

The Pakistan People's Party central executive committee and federal council meeting in the house of deceased leader Benazir Bhutto in Sindh province on 30 December brought no surprises for all those who know something about the PPP and Pakistani politics. Benazir Bhutto's 19 year-old son, Bilawal Bhutto, was made the chairman of the party and her husband, Asif Zardari, co-chairman. The PPP also decided to contest the general election and to continue the policies adopted by Benazir Bhutto.

Many political commentators are calling this meeting a second founding of the Pakistani People's Party, with a new leadership. But in reality, this new leadership is a continuation of the Bhutto family's rule over the party. All decisions have been taken according to Benazir's will that she left for the family and party. In it she asked her husband to take over the party, but he handed it over to his son. However, Asif Zardari will in fact continue to run and dominate the party behind the Bhutto name.

The tradition of family inheritance was used in 1979 when Zulifqar Ali Bhutto, without any consultation, handed over leadership of the party to his daughter, Benazir. Now Benazir has done the same thing. The feudal dynasty tradition thus still continues into the 21st century.

Future of PPP policies

Benazir Bhutto's sudden demise has created a huge vacuum not only in the PPP but also in national politics. She was a towering figure in the party and national politics, with a history of struggle and sacrifice against the establishment and the military dictatorship. Her anti-establishment image had faded considerably, especially in the last few months, because of the deals she was trying to do with General Musharraf, backed by western imperialism.

However, the PPP leader's violent death has once again made her a symbol of struggle and courage against fundamentalism and dictatorship. It will wash away many of the betrayals and political mistakes that she made for a short period of time in her political career.

The PPP leadership will use the sympathy wave and mood of grief to pursue policies which serve their interests. It is most likely that the party will be able to maintain unity and avoid any big split in the short term. It is also most likely that it will win a majority in the coming election to form a government. The feudal dominated leadership will use the present mood and anti-regime anger to muster support from the working masses to strike a fresh deal with the military establishment to share power.

Once in government, the party will have to deal with the real issues. The working masses will not give much time to a PPP government to solve their problems. One thing is very clear - that the party of Bhutto will not be able to solve the problems faced by the working class and poor people. It has no alternative programme or strategy to solve the problems of the working masses. It will pursue the same free market economic policies implemented by previous PPP governments, which resulted in diminishing support. It is most likely that the PPP will continue its pro-US policy and support for the "War on Terror".

In the absence of a clear programme which could unify the party, there is now no charismatic leader to hold the party together in the long run, in the way Benazir was able to do. In the future, the PPP could divide into different groups which could lead to new formations.

If a working class movement started to develop in the next couple of years, then a more radical formation could develop around leaders like Aitzaz Ahsan (the leader of the recent lawyers' movement). The size and nature of any splits will depend on the concrete existing conditions of that time. One thing is clear: the present political road will take the PPP into disarray and deeper crisis.

Working class mood

The likely election victory of the PPP will be described by many as the revival of a political tradition. The PPP will undoubtedly gain some electoral support on the basis of the current wave of sympathy and the mood of grief. Benazir Bhutto's killing has certainly sparked an anti-establishment mood and anger in the working masses. This sympathy and anger might turn into enough votes for the PPP to defeat the pro-Musharraf parties. But this sympathy will be a short term phenomenon and will not last long. It will not fundamentally change the consciousness and attitude of the working class towards the PPP.

It is most likely that the PPP will not be able to revive its base and support in the working class. The sympathy will disappear after the party comes to power and implements the same anti-working class and poor people policies. Some sections of the working class will come out to cast their votes against the regime and, in the absence of a viable working class alternative, vote in favour of the PPP.

It is not possible for the PPP to again become the party of the masses in the same way that it was in the past. It will be viewed differently. The more advanced layers of working people are not ready to trust the leadership of the party. Even in the wider layers, sympathy is not turning into practical support. As a result it will not be possible for the leadership to transform the party into a political force that can engender widespread hopes and illusions amongst the masses. Nevertheless, some leaders or sections of the party, under pressure from the masses, could at least verbally adopt a more radical left, anti-imperialist, or social democratic position.

In the period before her death Benazir Bhutto had been failing to mobilise the masses behind her party. Her election rallies and public meetings were smaller in numbers compared to previous election campaigns.

Lessons not learned

Zulifqar Ali Bhutto, the father of Benazir and founding chairman of the PPP, drew the necessary conclusions from his political failures before his hanging in 1979. In his last book written in prison, called 'If I was assassinated', he concluded:" I am spending time in this death cell because I tried to make compromises between two battling classes - the working class and the ruling class. No compromise can be made between these conflicting classes. This class war will only end with the decisive defeat of one class. This is the lesson of my present condition".

Bhutto was not lucky enough to get a second chance after drawing this conclusion, but his daughter refused to learn the lessons from his experience. ZA Bhutto got the chance to transform the state structure and political system but he ended up strengthening it. He introduced reforms which hurt the ruling class and they decided to take revenge. Bhutto had tried to reform the state and the system but failed in the end.

Benazir Bhutto tried the same and failed miserably. She did everything possible to make compromises with the establishment but was never trusted by them. She failed to defend and promote the interests of the working class and poor masses. She tried to appease Pakistan's ruling elite and be acceptable to imperialism.

The struggle for freedom, democracy, and fundamental rights and for political and social transformation to solve all the problems faced by Pakistan's working class and poor masses, is a struggle to change the system and state structure. This means a struggle against capitalism, feudalism, imperialism and rightwing political Islamism - all at the same time. These are interlinked with each other; any effort to defeat one of them will fail because the others will come to its rescue.

Benazir Bhutto wanted to end reactionary religious fundamentalism without ending capitalism, imperialism and feudalism. This cannot be done. The struggle against poverty, unemployment, price inflation and hunger is linked with the struggle to overthrow capitalism and to build socialism.

The present leadership of the PPP is not ready to take up this struggle against capitalism and feudalism. Instead it is working to strengthen the status-quo - the present rotten system. The PPP leadership is not ready to learn the lessons and seems set to repeat the mistakes of the past. Workers and poor people, however, will be prepared to draw conclusions on the basis of the experience and bitter disappointments they have had.

It is clear from the way the succession to Benazir has been decided, and the lack of a real break from feudalism, capitalism and imperialism on the part of the PPP leaders, that an independent movement and party of the working class and poor is urgently needed. This would be a force to fight for a real change in the conditions of the mass of the population in Pakistan today and to conduct the struggle for socialism.

General Musharraf came to power in a coup in 1999, and since September 11th 2001 has given his support to Bush’s "War on Terror" and in particular the US invasion of Afghanistan.

With Pakistan as the second most populous Muslim country and given its strategic position bordering Afghanistan and Iran, it is a key ally of the US, and with Musharraf’s hold on power looking increasingly shaky, we are witnessing an increasingly complicated situation for US imperialism. 

In fact, Musharraf’s support for Bush’s "War on Terror" has served to make him deeply unpopular and hated by the Pakistani masses and has contributed to the burgeoning of Islamic fundamentalism. This poses a strategic threat to the US, that the Financial Times believes is greater than any threat that the Taliban presents.

The US ruling class were relying on Benazir Bhutto to salvage the situation in Pakistan, striking a deal with the military (and if necessary Musharraf) in order to restore order and ensure an ally of US imperialism remained at the helm. Benazir Bhutto’s recent assassination has rendered this option for US interests obsolete, and has intensified the uncertainty and instability that characterises the current climate in the country.

The role of the military is integral to the nature of the corrupt regime that exists. According to research by Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, author of "Military Incorporated: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy", private business interests of the military could be worth up to €14 billion, accounting for one-third of heavy industry and up to 7% of private assets. This translates into Pakistan’s military owning 12 million acres of public land as well as banks, insurance companies, universities, petrol stations, industrial plants, etc. In bourgeois-democratic capitalist countries, for example the US, the army is an arm of the state that acts in the interests of big business. In Pakistan the generals themselves are a significant section of the capitalists and for half the existence of the state of Pakistan the army has directly ruled the country.

The development of the crisis in Pakistan found expression in recent months in what can be described as a split that opened up at the top of society. During this time, sections of the judiciary moved against Musharraf, opposing his ties to the military. A struggle of lawyers and political activists ensued that culminated in Musharraf imposing martial law, arresting protesters by the thousands and removing the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

Unprecedented scenes of lawyers in their suits protesting on the streets throughout the major cities, repressed by the heavy-handed tactics of the police indicated the enormous instability of the Musharraf regime. Musharraf, opposed not only by the working class and poor, but also actively opposed by sections of the top of society, desperately resorted to repression to hold on to power. This predominantly middle-class movement gives a taster of the massive convulsions that can occur in Pakistan in the coming period when the working class and poor masses who are seething with discontent, themselves take centre-stage in struggle. Lawyers were joined on the streets by students and sections of workers, including rickshaw workers in Lahore and other cities, who joined the anti-Musharraf demonstrations due to their worsening living standards.

An escalation of the crisis situation in Pakistan occurred with Benazir Bhutto’s assassination. The government was swift to point the finger at an Al-Qaeda linked group. The PPP however, dispute this claim, and Benazir Bhutto herself before her death continually claimed that elements of the state apparatus wanted her dead. Some element of state collusion or direct involvement in her assassination is a real possibility if not a probability. And the lack of clarity on how Bhutto was killed, with contradictory statements from the regime about the manner of her death – a fall or a bullet can - only re-enforce people’s suspicions that elements within the state and/or dictatorship assasinated Benazir Bhutto. 

Sections of the military, who themselves have links to Islamic fundamentalists, undoubtedly felt threatened by Benazir Bhutto’s popularity and her staunch and outspoken opposition to Islamic fundamentalism and were viciously opposed to her coming to power.

Ordinary Pakistanis were enraged by the assassination of the popular PPP leader and her murder provoked an eruption of frenzied protests and violence throughout the country. In the rural province of Sindh where Benazir was originally from, mobs set fire to banks, government buildings, railway stations, buses and shops. The government had to declare three days of mourning as the country effectively shut down in protest.

This wave of anger is an expression of the widespread discontent of the working class and poor masses of Pakistan, whose daily lives are increasingly difficult despite the presence of a much-lauded economic boom. The GDP per head in Pakistan is $788, life expectancy for men and women is a mere 63, years and conditions are only worsening. Huge price increases mean that working class families can no longer afford to feed their children three times a day.

As it stands, elections originally scheduled for the 8 January have been postponed until 18 February. A victory for the PPP is likely, but stability in Pakistan is most certainly not on the cards in the next period. The basic grievances of the masses in Pakistan will not be addressed by any of the existing forces that have no intentions of tackling military rule or the capitalist and landlord system that is crippling them. Increasingly, it will be the struggles of the workers and poor in this country that will emerge to the forefront and play the fundamental role in shaping Pakistan’s future.