After decades at the top of his party, Ian Paisley is to depart from the leadership of the DUP and the position of First Minister. Almost all political commentators and politicians from all the main parties lauded Paisley as some kind of hero of the peace process when he announced his resignation. The truth is very different.
Paisley has traded on sectarian division and fanned the fires of sectarianism for all of his political career. He has not changed fundamentally in the last year but instead signed up for a deal with Sinn Fein, which is based on a sectarian carve up of power and which consolidates sectarian division.
Was Paisley pushed out? The answer is clearly yes. There were probably several reasons for this. Robinson and other secondary leaders certainly wanted Paisley out of the way as he represented a bar to their progress up the ladder. With him out of the way, it clears the way for a series of promotions through the ranks. It is also the case that Paisley was losing his grip. He was badly exposed at First Minister’s question time on several occasions when he gave pre-prepared answers to the wrong questions and didn’t recognise his mistakes. He was becoming increasingly dependent on his son to keep him right and his son is now gone.
The resignation of Ian Paisley junior was a consequence of the series of financial scandals that have hit the DUP recently. Paisley Junior appeared to be lining his own pockets and the dirt was sticking to his father too. The writing was on the wall for Paisley for some time but the final push to get rid of him came after the Dromore local council by-election. In this election Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), the anti-power sharing party set up by ex-DUP MEP Jim Allister, gained 20% of the vote compared to the DUP’s 27%. The result was that the UUP came through the middle and won the seat.
It is entirely possible that this result could be repeated at the next Assembly, Westminster and local elections, at least in some rural areas. TUV could gain seats, but more importantly could deny the DUP seats by shredding its vote. The UUP, the SDLP and Sinn Fein could all gain depending on how the vote splits. In such a situation, the DUP could lose its status as the largest party to Sinn Fein. And depending on events, TUV could gain momentum and do even more damage to the DUP, picking up more than a handful of seats. For DUP strategists this is a nightmare scenario and they calculated that they had to move quickly to rescue the situation. They blamed Paisley’s too close relationship with Martin McGuinness-the "chuckle brothers" jibe went down badly with hard core DUP voters-for the Dromore result. It was time for him to go.
It is almost certain that Peter Robinson will replace Paisley as DUP leader and First Minister and that Nigel Dodds will come in as his deputy. There is even talk of a Blair-Brown deal whereby Dodds will take over from the older Robinson in time. The new team will present a different face to Sinn Fein and to their electorate. There will be no more public cosiness and a series of high profile rows with Sinn Fein are likely. Already there is a suggestion that the idea of a new stadium at the Maze will be ditched in favour of a stadium in East Belfast. It is not likely that the Executive will collapse in the next period but it cannot be ruled out, especially if a strategy of confrontation is adopted by the DUP. It is more likely that the Executive will continue to be characterised by paralysis on a number of key issues. Crunch issues include the future of the eleven plus, and the devolution of policing and justice powers. A major dispute on an unforeseen sectarian issue could be around the corner.
The man at the top may be changing but the Executive remains unchanged in every other way. It remains deeply divided on sectarian issues but united on economic issues. This remains a government committed to neo-liberal policies such as the introduction of water charges. The power-sharing Executive is really a power-dividing Executive. Power has been divided up between the two main sectarian parties. Politicians like Paisley and all of his ilk are part of the problem, not part of the solution. The real battle is not between the various shades of right-wing nationalism or right-wing unionism but between the sectarian parties and the building of an alternative. Working class people are crying out for such an alternative. Large numbers, seeing no alternative to the sectarian parties, don’t vote. In East Belfast, for example, only just over 50% turn out on polling day.
Working class people need their own party: a mass party which attracts support by posing an alternative to the right wing policies of the Executive and seeks to overcome sectarian division not cement it.
